ARC THEORYBEYOND THE BOX SCORE.
FREE PUBLIC BETA
DEMO & RESEARCH · No live recommendations

Explore all seven sections. JavaScript enables interactive search, charts and scenario controls; complete read-only content remains available if scripts fail.

YOUR DAILY PERSPECTIVE

Command Center

A clearer view of the game.

FREE PUBLIC BETA
DEMO & RESEARCH

Free to explore. Current NBA feeds and qualified picks are unavailable. Illustrative statistics are labeled DEMO. See the actual evidence.

BASKETBALL. SEEN DIFFERENTLY.

Beyond the
Box Score.

The minutes. The matchup. The full picture.

Open Prediction Lab
94 × 50 FT EVERY ANGLE MATTERS
ARC / 01
Frozen championv0.3
Forecast packets24
Distinct games17
Eligible settled0

Illustrative NBA slate

Illustrative schedule · Times Eastern · No verified game date

DEMO

Top picks of the day

A maximum of six. Every place must be earned.

0 QUALIFIED
0/ 6QUALIFIED PLAYS

Every play earns its place.

No play has passed every evidence requirement. Verified availability, current inputs, calibrated probabilities and licensed prices are still unresolved.

See the selection standard

Find your next angle

Explore player profiles and the factors behind a projection.

Player Deep Dive
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT DEMO

Jayson Tatum

BOS · Wing · Synthetic profile

Scenario points28.9
Minutes35.6
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT DEMO

Nikola Jokić

DEN · Center · Synthetic profile

Scenario assists9.3
Minutes34.8
PLAYER SPOTLIGHT DEMO

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC · Guard · Synthetic profile

Scenario points31.3
Minutes34.5

Understand the distribution

One number never tells the whole story.

Read the game environment

Pace, personnel and opportunity in context.

Inspect the evidence

Original timestamps. Clear limitations.

SELECTIVITY IS THE STANDARD

Top picks of the day

Up to six plays. Ranked only after documented engine selection requirements pass.

0/ 6QUALIFIED PLAYS

Every play earns its place.

No play has passed every evidence requirement. Verified availability, current inputs, calibrated probabilities and licensed prices are still unresolved.

See the selection standard
01 Verify the inputs→02 Validate probabilities→03 Verify the price→04 Freeze the forecast
The qualification standard

Every requirement must pass in the research engine. Live numerical selection and ranking criteria still need independent validation; visual badges do not qualify a play.

Engine-qualified evidenceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Permitted modeling and display rightsUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified player and game identitiesUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Current accepted player historyUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified availability and rosterUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Independent calibration requirements passedUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Licensed, timestamped sportsbook priceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Forecast and price recorded before tipoffUnresolved · demo does not qualify

Inside the analysis

Three expandable product examples. All statistics and probabilities are synthetic.

DEMO
EXAMPLE 01 DEMO · NOT QUALIFIED

Jayson Tatum

BOS • Wing • vs NYK

Points over26.5
Scenario mean28.9
90% scenario range14–46
Invented P(over)56.8%
Explore the full analysis
UI EXAMPLE · This scenario has not qualified as a pick.
Opponent / tipoffNYK · no verified game date
Sportsbook / priceUnavailable · no captured offer
Price timestampUnavailable
Model probabilityUnavailable · the number above is synthetic
Implied probability / edgeUnavailable · requires verified inputs
Minutes / usage35.6 demo minutes · role unverified
Recent / matchup historyInvented recent trend · actual history unavailable
Opponent defenseActual tendencies unavailable
Injury / startersUnknown · no confirmed active status
FreshnessStatic fixture · no current feed

Qualification requirements

Engine-qualified evidenceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Permitted modeling and display rightsUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified player and game identitiesUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Current accepted player historyUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified availability and rosterUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Independent calibration requirements passedUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Licensed, timestamped sportsbook priceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Forecast and price recorded before tipoffUnresolved · demo does not qualify

Key risks and invalidation

An unverified lineup, workload restriction, stale history or changed market price would require a new forecast. None of these demo cards may enter the real shortlist.

EXAMPLE 02 DEMO · NOT QUALIFIED

Nikola Jokić

DEN • Center • vs LAL

Assists over8.5
Scenario mean9.3
90% scenario range4–15
Invented P(over)55.1%
Explore the full analysis
UI EXAMPLE · This scenario has not qualified as a pick.
Opponent / tipoffLAL · no verified game date
Sportsbook / priceUnavailable · no captured offer
Price timestampUnavailable
Model probabilityUnavailable · the number above is synthetic
Implied probability / edgeUnavailable · requires verified inputs
Minutes / usage34.8 demo minutes · role unverified
Recent / matchup historyInvented recent trend · actual history unavailable
Opponent defenseActual tendencies unavailable
Injury / startersUnknown · no confirmed active status
FreshnessStatic fixture · no current feed

Qualification requirements

Engine-qualified evidenceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Permitted modeling and display rightsUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified player and game identitiesUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Current accepted player historyUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified availability and rosterUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Independent calibration requirements passedUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Licensed, timestamped sportsbook priceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Forecast and price recorded before tipoffUnresolved · demo does not qualify

Key risks and invalidation

An unverified lineup, workload restriction, stale history or changed market price would require a new forecast. None of these demo cards may enter the real shortlist.

EXAMPLE 03 DEMO · NOT QUALIFIED

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

OKC • Guard • vs MEM

Points over29.5
Scenario mean31.3
90% scenario range16–49
Invented P(over)54.2%
Explore the full analysis
UI EXAMPLE · This scenario has not qualified as a pick.
Opponent / tipoffMEM · no verified game date
Sportsbook / priceUnavailable · no captured offer
Price timestampUnavailable
Model probabilityUnavailable · the number above is synthetic
Implied probability / edgeUnavailable · requires verified inputs
Minutes / usage34.5 demo minutes · role unverified
Recent / matchup historyInvented recent trend · actual history unavailable
Opponent defenseActual tendencies unavailable
Injury / startersUnknown · no confirmed active status
FreshnessStatic fixture · no current feed

Qualification requirements

Engine-qualified evidenceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Permitted modeling and display rightsUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified player and game identitiesUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Current accepted player historyUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Verified availability and rosterUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Independent calibration requirements passedUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Licensed, timestamped sportsbook priceUnresolved · demo does not qualify
Forecast and price recorded before tipoffUnresolved · demo does not qualify

Key risks and invalidation

An unverified lineup, workload restriction, stale history or changed market price would require a new forecast. None of these demo cards may enter the real shortlist.

PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Prediction Lab

Follow the opportunity. Explore the full range.

Jayson Tatum

BOS • Wing • vs NYK

AVAILABILITY UNKNOWNDEMO

Points explorer

4,096 synthetic scenarios · v0.3 output unavailable

DEMO
DEMO OUTCOME DENSITY28.9 scenario mean
UnderOver
DEMO: 0.0–2.6 · 0.0% of invented scenariosDEMO: 2.6–5.1 · 0.1% of invented scenariosDEMO: 5.1–7.7 · 0.2% of invented scenariosDEMO: 7.7–10.3 · 1.2% of invented scenariosDEMO: 10.3–12.9 · 1.3% of invented scenariosDEMO: 12.9–15.4 · 4.0% of invented scenariosDEMO: 15.4–18.0 · 7.3% of invented scenariosDEMO: 18.0–20.6 · 6.2% of invented scenariosDEMO: 20.6–23.1 · 11.0% of invented scenariosDEMO: 23.1–25.7 · 8.1% of invented scenariosDEMO: 25.7–28.3 · 11.8% of invented scenariosDEMO: 28.3–30.9 · 7.2% of invented scenariosDEMO: 30.9–33.4 · 11.3% of invented scenariosDEMO: 33.4–36.0 · 9.9% of invented scenariosDEMO: 36.0–38.6 · 4.7% of invented scenariosDEMO: 38.6–41.1 · 5.4% of invented scenariosDEMO: 41.1–43.7 · 2.7% of invented scenariosDEMO: 43.7–46.3 · 3.3% of invented scenariosDEMO: 46.3–48.9 · 1.2% of invented scenariosDEMO: 48.9–51.4 · 1.1% of invented scenariosDEMO: 51.4–54.0 · 0.7% of invented scenariosDEMO: 54.0–56.6 · 0.4% of invented scenariosDEMO: 56.6–59.1 · 0.4% of invented scenariosDEMO: 59.1–61.7 · 0.1% of invented scenariosDEMO: 61.7–64.3 · 0.1% of invented scenariosDEMO: 64.3–66.9 · 0.0% of invented scenariosDEMO: 66.9–69.4 · 0.1% of invented scenariosDEMO: 69.4–72.0 · 0.0% of invented scenariosLine 26.5018365472

43.2% under · 56.8% over

Hover or focus a bar for its range. Individual bar shading is illustrative; exact over/under probabilities use all unbinned samples.

What if the game changes?

Adjust the hypothetical inputs.

75% baseline115%
90% baseline110%
80% baseline120%

These controls change invented scenarios. They do not alter a frozen prediction or estimate a real injury effect.

How to read uncertainty

The central 90% range contains the middle 90% of these invented scenarios. It is not a calibrated confidence level. Actual predictive coverage requires independently settled games.

Demo shot map
GAME ENVIRONMENT

Matchup Intelligence

The context around every opportunity.

NYK

NYK

Away · synthetic

7:30 PM ET · DEMOvs.

No verified game date

BOS

BOS

Home · synthetic

Team profiles

Illustrative comparison

DEMO
99.8Pace · possessions / 48101.2
112.8Defensive rating · points / 100110.3
115.2Offensive rating · points / 100117.1
37.4Three-point attempt share · %42.1
29.4Usage concentration · %31.2

All team profile values are invented. No measured defensive weakness or matchup adjustment is asserted.

Rotation canvas

One fictional regulation rotation

240 MIN
S1
36
S2
34
S3
32
S4
30
S5
28
B1
26
B2
22
B3
18
B4
14

Five players × 48 minutes = 240. Each overtime adds 25 team-minutes. This is a role diagram, not a confirmed starting lineup.

Personnel & availability

Verified current inputs are required before applying any adjustment.

Unknown

Starting five

No confirmed starters loaded.

Unknown

Injury report

No verified current report loaded.

Unavailable

Rest & workload

Recent accepted minutes are missing.

Opponent tendencies, schemes and matchup history
Position-specific defense, shot profiles, recent trends and prior meetings are unavailable in the accepted frontend payload. No automatic player boost or inferred scheme is displayed.
PLAYER INTELLIGENCE

Player Deep Dive

The numbers. The role. The story over time.

BOS / WING DEMO

Jayson Tatum

Illustrative player profile · Actual season and career data unavailable

Points28.6
Rebounds8.4
Assists4.8
Minutes35.6

Performance explorer

Invented game log · 12 displayed rows

DEMO
FILTERED DEMO AVERAGE29.3 points
12 invented games
Demo game 1: 35 Points1Demo game 2: 28 Points2Demo game 3: 36 Points3Demo game 4: 29 Points4Demo game 5: 22 Points5Demo game 6: 30 Points6Demo game 7: 23 Points7Demo game 8: 31 Points8Demo game 9: 25 Points9Demo game 10: 33 Points10Demo game 11: 26 Points11Demo game 12: 34 Points12

Game log

Every row below is an invented example; no final results or actual dates are implied.

DEMO
Invented game log, not observed player results
SAMPLEOPPONENTVENUEMINPTSREBAST3PMPRA
Demo 01NYKhome31.63563244
Demo 02LALaway33.22874339
Demo 03MEMhome34.83685349
Demo 04NYKaway36.42996444
Demo 05LALhome3822103235
Demo 06MEMaway31.63064340
Demo 07NYKhome33.22375335
Demo 08LALaway34.83186445
Demo 09MEMhome36.42593237
Demo 10NYKaway3833104347
Demo 11LALhome31.62665337
Demo 12MEMaway33.23476447
Usage, shooting & opportunity
Actual usage, touches, shot attempts, efficiency and rebound chances are unavailable in the current payload. Reliable historical observations are required to distinguish opportunity from conversion.
Rolling averages & opponent history
The current filters summarize invented rows only. Real rolling windows must use games known before the forecast cutoff, with small samples and role changes accounted for.
MARKET INTELLIGENCE

Line Analyzer

Understand the line before evaluating the price.

NO VERIFIED OFFERS

Explore a player prop

Manual scenario workspace

DEMO
Official model projection—Current accepted inputs unavailable
Validated fair odds—Calibrated probabilities required
Estimated value—Verified model and price required
Explore nearby thresholds

Invented scenario arithmetic. No market offer or recommendation.

DEMO LINEP(OVER)P(PUSH)P(UNDER)
25.560.5%0.0%39.5%
26.556.8%0.0%43.2%
27.553.0%0.0%47.0%
EVIDENCE SUMMARY

No actionable comparison available.

Historical hit rates, price movement and expected value stay unavailable until permitted observations and calibrated model output are verified.

Price calculator

Local American-odds arithmetic

MANUAL

Over implied probability53.5%
Normalized two-way probability51.1%
Two-way overround4.7%

Manual inputs have no sportsbook, capture timestamp or source verification. Normalizing a price pair does not establish true probability.

How the calculator works
Negative odds −a imply a / (a + 100). Positive odds +b imply 100 / (b + 100). The normalized over share divides its implied probability by the sum of both sides.

A price needs provenance.

Sportsbook · player · market · line · price · original timestamp · source rights · pre-tipoff capture

THE AVAILABLE EVIDENCE

Model Scorecard

Preserved research record · October 22, 2026 snapshot

READ ONLY
Immutable packets2417 distinct games
Eligible settled games0Settlement gates unresolved
Frozen championv0.3No frontend model changes
Verified ROI—No profitability evidence

A transparent record starts with the unknowns.

These are research-only forecasts. Three completed games remain blocked in this dated snapshot. No accuracy, calibration or betting return can be reported.

Immutable forecast ledger

Capture and scheduled tipoff shown in UTC

24 PACKETS
Minimized research metadata, dated October 22, all research-only
PACKETGAME ALIASCAPTURE COMMITSCHEDULED TIPPLAYERSSTATUS · OCT 22
G001Oct 21, 21:02 UTCOct 22, 02:00 UTC3BLOCKED
G001Oct 22, 01:28 UTCOct 22, 02:00 UTC36BLOCKED
G002Oct 22, 01:28 UTCOct 22, 02:00 UTC36BLOCKED
G003Oct 22, 01:28 UTCOct 22, 02:30 UTC33BLOCKED
G004Oct 22, 01:36 UTCOct 22, 23:00 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G005Oct 22, 01:36 UTCOct 23, 01:30 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G004Oct 22, 02:09 UTCOct 22, 23:00 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G005Oct 22, 02:09 UTCOct 23, 01:30 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G004Oct 22, 02:54 UTCOct 22, 23:00 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G005Oct 22, 02:54 UTCOct 23, 01:30 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G006Oct 22, 03:36 UTCOct 23, 20:00 UTC35PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G007Oct 22, 03:36 UTCOct 23, 23:00 UTC33PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G008Oct 22, 03:36 UTCOct 23, 23:00 UTC35PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G009Oct 22, 03:36 UTCOct 23, 23:00 UTC35PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G010Oct 22, 03:36 UTCOct 23, 23:00 UTC33PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G011Oct 22, 03:36 UTCOct 23, 23:00 UTC35PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G012Oct 22, 03:37 UTCOct 24, 00:00 UTC34PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G013Oct 22, 03:37 UTCOct 24, 01:30 UTC32PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G014Oct 22, 03:37 UTCOct 24, 01:30 UTC35PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G015Oct 22, 03:37 UTCOct 24, 02:00 UTC38PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G016Oct 22, 03:37 UTCOct 24, 02:00 UTC32PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G017Oct 22, 03:37 UTCOct 24, 02:00 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G004Oct 22, 09:42 UTCOct 22, 23:00 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT
G005Oct 22, 09:42 UTCOct 23, 01:30 UTC36PENDING IN SNAPSHOT

24 overlapping packet versions do not constitute 24 independent observations. Public aliases preserve privacy; inspect a row for a provenance excerpt. Full records stay private. This snapshot is not refreshed automatically.

Settlement blockers

Original research status; no results changed by the frontend.

COMPLETED · NOT SETTLED

GSW–LAL

Permitted independent finals, complete canonical identities and required minute precision remain unresolved.

BLOCKED
COMPLETED · NOT SETTLED

PHX–POR

Permitted independent finals, complete canonical identities and required minute precision remain unresolved.

BLOCKED
COMPLETED · NOT SETTLED

SAC–LAC

Permitted independent finals, complete canonical identities and required minute precision remain unresolved.

BLOCKED
Publication scope

The v0.3 champion, original forecasts and research datasets remain private and unchanged. This site exposes a minimized dated metadata summary only. No provider responses, final box scores, individual forecasts or model weights are published.